When the only way is up, the only way is down. Bitcoin, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 make New All Time Highs.

As these markets make new all time highs, these also achieve our price objectives we had forecasted weeks and months in advance based on pattern recognition. We discuss the key levels to watch.

Jul 20, 2025

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the USDJPY charts are of particular importance in this newsletter and a must read.

Week in review

S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) made new all time highs. SPX gained +37.04 points for the week and closed +0.59% higher. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was much stronger and gained +284.88 points and closed +1.25% higher. New York Stock Exchange Index (NYA), which is a broad measure of stocks listed as it includes the ADR, was unchanged and slightly down by -0.03%. Small Caps Russell 2000 (RUT) presented a small recovery and closed +0.23% points higher.

Below is how the key indices we follow performed last week.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the best performer and closed the week up +2.84%. Tech heavy Nasdaq 100 followed up with an impressive 1.25% return for the investors. As Nasdaq 100 rose to a new all time high, the volatility for the index presented by VXN lost -2.2%. European indices put on a mediocre performance last week. India’s Sensex was the worst performer and lost -0.9%.

Here are the month to date returns for the key indices:

Here are the year to date returns for the key indices:

We can see that the Asian and European indices are clear winners on YtD basis vs the US stock indices.

Sector performance in the US markets

The best performing sector last week is the Aerospace and Defense in the Industrials, up 4.86%. Last week we also saw news come out of the Europe where they announced massive spend increase in their budget for defence sector. Biotechnology, Homebuilders, Energy, Healthcare and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-sector within the Energy sector were the worst performers.

Below are the Month to Date returns for the sectors and we can see the KRE which is the ETF for the regional banks is the best performer. Communication Services and the Healthcare are the only two sectors giving negative returns.

On Year To Date basis, we can see the best performing sector is the Defence. Biotech, Homebuilders and Healthcare are the laggards, the rest are rising on YtD basis.

Stocks Outperforming the S&P 500

Stocks that were in favour by investors last Friday and outperformed the S&P 500 index daily return.

Markets

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Last week in the newsletter we discussed the crypto coin was close to our weekly target of 120K. This target has been reached and it is also the 1.618% Fibonacci price projection where the CD leg is 1.618 times the AB of the AB=CD structure. Chart below.

We do have a completed pattern formation, however, the week is not closed yet as of the timing of the writing. There is a chance the Bitcoin could close the week slightly lower.

We do have a higher target of 125K on the daily chart. However, now it depends what happens next. Whilst it is bullish, if the market closes below the 110K level on 2 consecutive daily basis then my bias is likely to change.

Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 are highly correlated since late 2021. Where ever Bitcoin goes, Nasdaq 100 follows as can be seen in the below chart.

Since April 2025 lows, this correlation is very strong as can be seen the chart below. From a pattern recognition perspective, what is key to note is that both Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 (discussed in detail in the latter section) have reached our longer term price projections. Now, this is good news that our longer term price projections have been met, we are now watching the price action very closely.

Dollar

Dollar has been rising as we discussed in last Sunday's newsletter . It is up 12 days in a row and reaching overbought conditions.

Below is the chart of the correlation between the Yield of 10-Year Treasury Note and the US Dollar. We can see that since the beginning of 2025, both Dollar and the T-Note yields moved lower. However, the yields began to spike from 4th of April 2025 but the Dollar kept on moving lower, this broke the correlation temporarily.

However, this correlation seem to be coming back. Dollar could move lower from the bearish symmetry.

USDJPY

USDJPY and the 10-Year Treasury Note have a good correlation as can be seen in the chart below.

You can see, the tops highlighted by the red arrow and the bottoms highlighted by the green arrows co-inside nicely. What we can gather from the above chart is if the yields are likely to fall, the JPY is going to strengthen against the dollar. Last year from 11th of July 2024, we had the unwound of the carry trade. This could rear its head again, particularly, if the Fed decide to cut rates. BOJ is in the process of raising rates and a decline in the US interest rates could lead to the unwound of the carry trade, which in the past year caused short lived but a sharp sell off in the markets.

On shorter term basis, we are watching this pattern formation in the shaded region near the top of the trading range in USDJPY.

EURUSD

As can be seen on the weekly chart, EURUSD reached the pattern formation and for 2 weeks it’s been moving lower. It is reaching levels which could be considered oversold on the shorter term daily chart and could lead to bounce from the bearish symmetry on the dollar index daily chart as shown above.

Debt Markets

2-Year Treasury Note

Bearish Symmetry in the yields has kept the rise in the yields capped. A break below the 20 day moving average as shown by the blue line on the chart could accelerate the yields lower.

10 Year Treasury Note

Last week, we wrote that the rise in the 10 year yields was concerning. As of last Tuesday, 15th of July, the yields stop rising. It is quite likely we might have seen the yields peak and lower yields to follow.

The pattern appears to be a little bit more clear on the futures chart.

30 Year Long Bond Yield

The rise in yield was concerning, however, the AB=CD pattern highlighted by the blue line kept the rise in yields in check. Yields are likely to move lower.

Comex Gold

Gold is frustratingly range bound. The key for us is the $3250/oz level. As long as this low is held, it is point C of our 1:1 projection to a shorter term projection into $3550/oz to $3600/oz levels.’

Shorter term, we have a pattern with 1:1 projection at $3416/oz as shown in the highlighted region.

Comex Silver

Is $50/oz coming? Silver market is getting stronger and weekly chart represents higher targets. It could get to $40/oz.

US Markets

In last Sunday's newsletter we discussed the timing model. We saw the markets pullback early in the week, however, SPX and NDX went on to make new all time highs but Dow Jones Industrial is weaker and closed pretty much unchanged for the week with the closing price below the close of last week. NYA also consolidated.

The pullback that we saw last week created a low for the respective indices and that low is really important.

More to follow…

SPX - S&P 500 Cash

S&P 500’s pullback into the 6200 level is of importance. Above this level, the index is likely to target the 6500. Below this level, perhaps, it could go for the gap fill around the 6100 - 6000 level.

Higher targets for 2025 are 6500 which is the shorter term target and the markets in 2025 by the close of the year could target 6955 as illustrated in the weekly chart below. The 7th of April low is the key low the markets should respect and hold in 2025.

However, from the lows of 7th of April 2025 lows, the SPX is up 29% in a V-shape recovery. 6500 would take this gain to about 35% which is a big gain in a short amount of time. This leads us to believe that during the summer time the markets might begin to consolidate. In some of the European indices, which had been leading the US indices, we are already beginning to see this as we enter the summer time and we complete some of the pattern formations.

Nasdaq 100 Cash - NDX

Nasdaq 100 made a new all time and also met our long term target. We have AB=CD where CD leg is 1.272 x AB. The price could still move a little higher to 23600.

NYA - New York Stock Exchange Index

This index represents over 1600 stocks including ADRs. The index topped beginning of July and a pullback led to the test of the 20 DMA and also the harmonic symmetry. The index has found support and is range bound now.

Russell 2000

Russell 2000, the small caps index, is the weakest of all the major indices we follow. The gains since April 7th lows have been capped by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

World Markets

India’s SENSEX

German DAX

German DAX completing a long term AB= (1.618xAB) CD leg.

UK’s FTSE 100

FTSE 100 reached the target of 9015 the 1.618 expansion. Closing above this level on two consecutive days would be positive and the rally could continue, on the flip side, we could see a rotation back to the 20 DMA.

Disclaimer

This post, any text used in the post, any images, video, audio and links be it internal or external are for information and educational purposes only and not a financial advice.