Markets in forward view: Geopolitical uncertainty rises

Let's review the key pattern formations in the markets. Volatility is on the rise as the geopolitical tensions rise.

Timing model

Here is the timing model that we have shown before to our Substackers. We were looking for timing to come in at the end of June. It appears to have come in a little early. It does appear the cycles we have been watching for the stock market are likely to be running a little early in 2025.

Keep reading and we will discuss further what it means for the US stock market.

Debt Market

U.S Treasury yields rose last Friday, however, they remain below the key pattern formations we have been watching in the 2 year Treasury Note, 10 Year Treasury Note and the 30 Year Long Bond yield. The yields remain range bound on longer term weekly charts as illustrated on the below charts.

Let’s view how the patterns show up on the Treasury Futures charts.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains stable over the weekend despite the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that we have been witnessing over the weekend. The trend line support in the dotted redline is clearly acting as a support. We have a target of $114500/coin and we think the market could get there.

Also, Bitcoin was indicating a risk-off event as early as last Wednesday 11th June 2025 as it closed negative for the day and pulled even lower with the second consecutive daily lower close last Thursday. Friday morning we witnessed the geopolitical event unfold. Bitcoin has remained stable over the weekend and it is an interesting development, however, the price is finding resistance from the 20 DMA (day moving average) which a lot of short term traders like to watch. This trend line support, perhaps, might be an early indicator

Dollar

Dollar is weak, however, last Friday, it found some support from the 1.272 Fibonacci expansion as illustrated in the below chart. It is possible dollar could find some more support from this region. However, on the longer term weekly chart, dollar does look pretty weak and might be in a retracement.

Gold and Silver

Gold is much stronger than the Silver. Gold was strong last week. As illustrated in the charts we have higher targets for Gold and Silver.

US Stock Market

Markets were in risk-off last Friday as the situation in the Middle East developed. Please see the Substack from yesterday Markets in Rearview: Stock markets closed lower as geopolitical risks rise to look at how the markets had performed last week. In this section we will take a forward and discuss what the markets are likely to do based on pattern formation and pattern recognition.

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index)

VIX also quite fondly called the ‘fear index’ rose last Friday. VIX represents the expected volatility in the S&P 500 index on an annualised basis.

Thus far, VIX has not even rised to 25.35 which is the swing high form 23 May. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 28.75 and the market could retrace to this level.

S&P 500

S&P 500 (SPX) is likely to remain range bound between 6000 and 5700 for quite sometime, perhaps going into the next key timing zone into the late August to September timeframe. Perhaps during this time the geopolitical situation and also the tariff situation becomes more clear and a more sustained path is visible going forward. As long as the 7th April lows remain intact, the markets likely to resolve to the upside.

Let’s see how the future’s market line up with the cash. E-mini futures ES had formed this shaded pattern formation and we have seen lower prices. We could see the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off the 21st April lows and this will also line up with the market symmetry.

NASDAQ 100 Cash (NDX)

Dow Jones Futures

NYA - NYSE Composite Index

World Markets

Hang Seng Index

Asian indices had performed better than their US counterparts, however, after these developments, we could see a retracement. Still the market could hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 26300.

Sensex

Sensex is range bound and we were looking for the high target at the 1.618 Fibonacci expansion to be hit at 83,240, however, the market is testing the lower end of the range. If it begins to close below the 80500, then it could lead to a further deeper pullback. This market topped back in September of 2024 as shown by the pattern formation in the shaded region. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 72630 is a good support level and we have seen the market rally from this level.

German DAX

German DAX was the worst performer of the world indices last week. The market is closing below the 20 DMA and likely a further pullback is on its way.

FTSE 100

UK’s FTSE 100 has also completed the CD =1.618 x AB pattern formation and is now poised to move lower. It came very close to making a new all time high, just shy of it.

Good luck and good trading and investing!

Disclaimer

This post and it’s content is for education and information purposes only. It is not to be considered advice. Any shared data, graphics, info graphics and links are for information purposes only. The newsletter Market Chart Pattern cannot be held responsible for any use or misuse of this information.